Friday, 24 July 2015

The political system in Canada is broken.

The national post posted this infographic regarding polling results shortly after the child care benefit program was launched.

poll

 

It’s almost hard to accept that for the past year the Conservatives were third in polling against the Liberal’s and the NDP, only to, what appears to have bought votes, to put themselves back into a commanding majority – perhaps even a majority strong enough to ensure they remain the majority government – which I would deem a form of terrorism in of itself.

 

But how is it possible to have so easily bought a majority?

 

Math. and low voter turn outs.

 

This program is said to be benefiting 4 million families, by doubling the existing child benefits – and – rather then presenting them as tax refunds they are mailed out cheques in advance of the tax

 

It’s really difficult to not support the guy who just gave you a hundred dollars.

 

Now for the math: 4 million families represents 8 million high percentage voters. A mom and a dad, both voters, have notably good access to voting centers that tend to be schools or other facilities their children use.

 

8 million is not a majority in a population of 34 million Canadians. It is though a large chunk when you factor in that there are only 24 million eligible voters.

 

(Side Note: I don’t understand how there are 10 million Canadians not eligible for voting… Especially considering Canadians have an average of 2 children per family – there is no way that 25% of the population is under 18)

 

Of the 24 million eligible voters we had in the last election there was only a horrific 15 million people who casted votes. Now, that 8 million voters look more like 1/3rd of the vote.

 

The steak through the heart: Above and beyond all this, there is the existing voter base. The best metric in identifying a voter base in my opinion is to evaluate the popular vote – and – identify the lowest result for the past 20 years for each party:

  • Block Quebecois = 6%
  • Conservative = 12%
  • Green = .2%
  • Liberal = 19%
  • NDP = 7%

 

Even though a voter-base always favoured the Liberal’s, the fact that the each party has a strong base leaves the election to be decided amongst 56% of the population eligible voters active voters, which means the election campaign has to be directed at 8.4 million people.

 

The question is. I wonder how many of those 8 million voters in the families that were paid off are part of the 8.4 million that decide our next government.

 

Regards,

 

/Alex Casamassima

 

 

 

Le References

 

  1. http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/files/files/Child_Care_EN.pdf
  2. http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/conservative-support-among-voters-jumps-as-childcare-cheques-doled-out-poll
  3. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bureaucrats-told-to-provide-rob-nicholson-3-terrorism-related-statements-a-week-1.3163333
  4. http://globalnews.ca/news/2120861/what-does-child-care-actually-cost-in-canada/
  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_Canada
  6. http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-popular-vote-results/
  7. https://www.google.com/search?q=canadian+population&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
  8. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-312-x/98-312-x2011003_1-eng.cfm

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